Cyclonic Ignition in the Southern Tropics

   Over the past few days the Southern Hemisphere has exploded with activity. At the time of this post, there are four Invest areas in the South. Three of these were identified within twenty four hours of each other. The fourth is a large region of disturbed weather that has persisted for many days, but is taking awhile to organize due to its size. Two of these areas are likely due in part to a somewhat active Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. The MJO is a large scale eastward moving pulse of active weather and cloudiness that is centered on the equator and is most prevalent over the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific Ocean and recurs every thirty to sixty days on average. The details of this phenomena are a bit complicated to explain and it is currently a very active topic of research. Below are some images of the four Invest areas gathered from the NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division TC PAGES Page.



INVEST 94P
This is the large disturbance that has persisted for days, it currently has a high probability of becoming a Tropical Cyclone.



INVEST 95S
This disturbance, which is located between Indonesia and Australia, has developed very rapidly.



INVEST 96S
96S is not very well consolidated, but the structure that does exist is well organized.



INVEST 97S
This is the newest disturbance located in the Indian Ocean a little west of Indonesia.



Here is the map of the four Invest areas. From left to right: 96S, 97S, 95S, and 94P.



Finally, here is a image of the Indian Ocean. On the equator near the center are 96S and 97S and 95S can be seen on the far right. Notice the area of active weather and cloudiness, including 96S and 97S, near the equator, to the south and southeast of India. This zone is likely the current location of the MJO pulse.